UFC 324 Preview: Gaethje vs. Pimblett Betting Odds, Picks & Fight Breakdown
It’s been a long wait for true fans of MMA, but we finally have the first UFC event of 2026 ahead of us. UFC 324 has been long in the making, and on January 24th, all fans of MMA will get a chance to see Justin Gaethje fighting Paddy Pimblett for the interim lightweight title. People who wanted to see Amanda Nunes coming out of retirement will have to wait a little bit longer as Nunes vs. Kayla Harrison was postponed, due to the latter suffering a neck injury. Nunes will fight on a new date, against Harrison or someone else, but only with a belt on the line.
UFC 324 Event Breakdown
With less than a couple of days to go until UFC 324 the excitement is through the roof. The event is scheduled for January 24th. The first UC event of the year will take place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Dana White wants to kick off the year in style and there’s no better place to do it than in Las Vegas. All eyes will be set on the main event, which is the lightweight interim champion duel between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett. With Nunes vs. Harrison off the books, the fans will have to deal with Natália Silva vs. Rose Namajunas as far as top women’s division fighting goes.
The rest of the card is not to be underestimated too. Bantamweight is the division that attracts the most attention. In addition to Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong, we will also have Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 324. In an event or two, we will have one of these lads challenging Petr Yan for the bantamweight belt. As far as O’Malley goes, he believes that title will be waiting for him from the moment he beats Song Yadong. Bantamweight, a division long dominated by Merab Dvalishvili, appears to be open for new challengers.
Other interesting duels at the T-Mobile Arena include showdowns such as Waldo Cortes Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis, Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva, Michael Johnson vs. Alexander Hernandez, Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas, Ateba Abega Gautier vs. Andrey Pulyaev, Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson, Josh Hokit vs. Denzel Freeman, and Ricky Turcios vs. Cameron Smotherman. UFC 324 promises to be a night of plenty of good fighting, and if you plan to place a few wagers here and there you’d be better off to check out these UFC 324 betting predictions.
Gaethje vs Pimblett-Fighter Analysis
A fight for an interim belt is always interesting. It sets up the fighters for a title bout, while giving them some prestige to boast in the meantime. Being an interim champion is a well known sensation for Justin Gaethje as he held the honours once before. He is in a familiar spot, while the up and comer Paddy Pimblett will be looking to get a title challenger for himself. So far in his UFC career, Paddy has done everything right to get into this fight, starting his career with the company with a 7:0 record. On the other hand, Justin is one of the veterans who has been with Dana White since 2017. In the last decade, Gaethje has become one of the top and most exciting fighters the company has. When a man is nicknamed The Highlight, you know his fights are worth watching.
The only stain on Gaethje’s career is the fact that he never won a lightweight title. Yet, when you know his circumstances, even that can’t be taken against him. The first time when he became the interim champion he lost to the undisputed champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, while the second time, Charles Oliveira took the better of him. While one of the top fighters in the division for the last decade, Justin Gaethje finds himself in an underdog position in the upcoming fight.
As we said, Paddy Pimblett is an up and coming star in the company, and one well deserved of a title challenge. The Englishman is a product of Cage Warriors, where he dominated until 2021 when he moved to UFC. Paddy The Baddy has taken UFC by storm with his no nonsense personality, high energy walkouts, and an unorthodox fighting style. A Scouser with such impeccable grappling skills and submission dominated fight style was not something UFC saw coming. Yet, he gave his best in every fight to date, leading to him having a perfect 7:0 score within the company. He also managed to finish five of his opponents, showcasing his dominance in both of his last fights where King Green and Michael Chandler fell.
When you take a look at the most recent body of work for both fighters The Baddy is the bookies favorite for a reason. His finish rate speaks volumes, and as far as the lightweight division goes, Pimblett looks and fights the part. While that might be the case, some fans love to point out that while his undefeated record might be impressive, he did reach it by taking down the gatekeepers of the old UFC regime such as Tony Ferguson, and not some up and comers such as himself. Many pundits are seeing the upcoming UFC 324 bout vs. Justin Gaethje has a fight belonging to that category.
If you ask us, while The Highlight is not the fighter he once was, there’s still plenty of gas left in his tank. Unlike Paddy, he took down the likes of Dustin Poirier and Rafael Fiziev in his most recent bouts. The interim fight at UFC 324 will be an exciting duel between two styles. If The Baddy manages to take down Gaethje, and take the fight to the ground, there’s a big chance he will submit The Highlight. Yet, if the fight becomes a prolonged exchange of strikes on the feet, Gaethje just might get his chance at the belt once again. Gaethje vs Pimblett betting odds suggest that Paddy has this one wrapped up. Yet, if you like to cover the underdog, and an old wolf in these types of fights, Gaethje’s odds are worth taking a shot on.
Justin Gaethje’s Path to Victory
Thanks to his fighting style, Justin Gaethje got the nickname, The Highlight. During the last decade he has been one of the most exciting fighters the lightweight division produced. With his powerful striking and octagon movement, Justin has managed to wrap up 67% of all of his fights via KO/TKO. The man has 14 performance bonuses to his name, which is no small feat in a company such as UFC. Gaethje currently holds a 26:5 record in the UFC, and only five of those bouts went to a decision. During his career he was an interim champion once before after defeating Tony Ferguson. He lost the title fight twice, once to Khabib and once to Oliveira. In order to win this one, Gaethje will have to be strong on his feet, land a few blows, and do his best submission defense possible in order to get himself a title shot once again, late in his career.
Paddy Pimblett’s Game Plan
As far as The Baddy goes, there aren’t too many variations to his game plan. Paddy Pimblett is a submission master, and he will try to take down Justin Gaethje on the first opportunity he gets. This approach served him well even in his Cage Warriors days, where after a few wins it became evident that he would be a star in the UFC even before he signed with the company. The prophecy came true, as Paddy has an 7:0 record and wins against the likes of Michael Chandler, King Green and Tony Ferguson under his belt. His strength lies in top notch submission grappling, but his much improved striking shouldn’t be neglected either. While we see Paddy as a worthy contender, many fans believe that it was too early to push The Baddy into title contention considering that his biggest win to date was the one against Michael Chandler.
UFC 324 Odds & Betting Markets
The UFC 324 odds favour Paddy Pimblett. Justin Gaethje opens as an underdog. The odds on The Baddy are set at 1.45 making him a clear favourite to win the interim belt in Las Vegas. If you love a good underdog story, Stake.com has 2.85 odds provided on Gaethje and we all know that the old dog can still bite. The odds we’ve listed are for the match winner only, while sports betting markets provide players with plenty of ways to bet on this, and other MMA matches. If you want to elevate your odds of winning the available betting markets Match winner, Asian totals, Winning method, Winning method (double chance), Winner and exact rounds, Will the fight go the distance?, and Parlays.
Many fans and pundits have Paddy Pimblett wrapping up this one via submission before the final bell, and the odds on that outcome are set at 2.55. If you believe that Gaethje is the one who could wrap up this one by KO/TKO, the odds on that outcome are 4.90. What experts remain aligned on this bout is that it will not go down to a decision no matter what happens.
Expert Picks & Betting Strategies
All experts are aligned when it comes to the outcome of this bout. Paddy Pimblett is a favourite for a reason. If you bet on his outright win, it doesn’t matter how The Baddy is going to win, the odds are set at 1.45, and all you need is the Englishman’s win. We believe that Paddy is going to perform on the night, and win. Betting on the match winner is the safe bet, but as such, the odds will not provide you with too big of a win, unless you bet your house on Pimblett. If you’re looking for better odds, targeting a win by submission is the way to go. The odds of this happening are set at 2.55, and they’re worth taking. Experts do not see this bout going the distance under any circumstances, and if Paddy is to win before the final bell, a submission win is the way it will go.
If y UFC our focus lies on all fights on the UFC 324 card, and not only on the main event, you will need a fine strategy to hit on a couple of planned parlays. While there’s no ultimate strategy to win every bet, and few guidelines we’re about to provide could take you a long way. First of all, bet on fighters’ style and the hype it carries. This could be applied to Gaethje vs. Pimblett. Also, always focus on the fighter who has superior wrestling, as wrestling edge aids in controlling the clock and winning rounds leading up to a decision. When fighters are similar in style and skill, they always target the fight to go the distance. Lastly, never back a fighter on short notice, and bet on your gut sensation when you do it live and are watching the bout.
Final Prediction & Where to Bet on UFC 324
As we said, Paddy Pimblett is the favourite for this bout and for a reason. He is an up and coming fighter in the UFC, and at the moment, Gaethje is closer to being a gatekeeper than to his glory days. Betting on The Baddy to win via submission is the way to go, and the odds of 2.55 are more than justified to have this wager. Whether it’s nostalgia or something else, we still can’t look past Gaethje making a surprise comeback here. So, if you plan to bet on FC 324, leave a couple of bucks on the side, put it on Justin to win via KO/TKO, and forget about that slip. It might be the one you cash out later on. As ar as betting on the UFC goes, Stake just might be your best option, as not only do they release fair odds, but they’re also the official betting sponsor of UFC, and that counts for something, right?
