NFL MVP Verdict: Matthew Stafford vs. Drake Maye — A Deep Dive Into the Debate

January 21, 2026 Christa

As the 2025 regular season wrapped up, the NFL MVP race has come down to a compelling duel between Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and New England Patriots star Drake Maye. Both quarterbacks have produced outstanding seasons, and analysts, fans and oddsmakers are divided on who deserves the league’s top individual honor. Here’s a full look at the MVP debate, the statistics behind each player’s case, and why this has become one of the most fascinating MVP races on DraftKings in recent memory.

Stafford’s Historic Season at 37

Matthew Stafford has had one of the most remarkable seasons of his career in 2025. At age 37, he posted career-high numbers and led one of the NFL’s most productive offenses.

Stafford’s Key Stats

Passing yards: 4,707 (league leader)
Passing touchdowns: 46 (tops in the NFL)
First-team All-Pro selection: His first ever in his 17th season

Stafford’s performance stands out for its volume and efficiency. According to recent All-Pro voting, he received 31 of 50 first-place votes, edging out Maye for top honors — a clear signal of his impact and respect from sports writers and broadcasters.

One argument in Stafford’s favor is not just the eye-popping counting stats, but the team context. The Rams finished with a 12-5 record, battled in one of the toughest divisions in football and did so with Stafford as the central leader. Analysts cite his production on a team loaded with weapons like Puka Nacua and Davante Adams as evidence of his elite playmaking.

Critics also note that Stafford has never won an MVP, and winning at his age while racking up stats comparable to his best seasons is a strong narrative. His 46 touchdown passes are among the highest totals in league history, and being a veteran performer who continues to excel strengthens his case.

Drake Maye’s Breakout MVP Campaign

Drake Maye has made an explosive leap in just his second NFL season. The Patriots quarterback put up MVP-caliber numbers and helped New England secure the AFC East title with a 14-3 record, a remarkable turnaround from a struggling franchise.

Maye’s Key Stats

Passing yards: 4,394
Completion percentage: 72.0% (league leader)
Passer rating: 113.5 (tops in NFL)
Total yards (pass + rush): 4,844 in one comparison dataset

Advanced metrics paint an impressive picture for Maye. He led the NFL in EPA (expected points added) per dropback, a key efficiency metric, while Stafford ranked third in the same category. Maye also shone on throws, traveling over 15 air yards with the highest completion rate in the league.

Moreover, in a common-opponent comparison where the Patriots and Rams faced the same six teams, Maye put up slightly better totals in combined yards and fewer interceptions. This data has been used by some analysts to argue that the rookie-era quarterback has excelled against comparable competition.

Despite facing criticism for playing in what many view as a weaker overall schedule, Maye’s efficiency stats and league-leading efficiency metrics give voters a strong statistical case.

Key Points of the Debate

Traditional Stats vs. Advanced Metrics

Stafford leads in many traditional box score statistics like passing yards and touchdown passes. His league-leading totals in those categories have historically been associated with MVP winners. Meanwhile, Maye leads in advanced efficiency metrics such as passer rating and EPA per play, which have also been strong predictors for recent MVP winners. In fact, 12 of the last 15 MVP winners have led the league in EPA per play, and Maye’s first-place mark in that metric puts him in elite company.

Team Success

Team record and context always play a role. Maye’s Patriots finished 14-3 and captured a division title, which helps his MVP résumé. Stafford’s 12-5 Rams also succeeded, but the narrative of a rising young star versus a veteran having a career season adds complexity to voting decisions.

Narrative and Perception

Maye’s breakout season at age 23 has generated narrative momentum. Voters often reward storylines that reflect transformation and emergence. Meanwhile, Stafford’s story is one of perseverance, longevity and late-career excellence — a compelling narrative of its own.

Voter and Award Implications

The All-Pro honors give us a hint of how the MVP voting might shake out. Stafford’s first-team selection over Maye — despite Maye’s statistical efficiency edge — indicates that some voters value traditional production and team success. And while being first-team All-Pro has often aligned with MVP voting in the past, history shows it is not a hard rule; there have been cases where the MVP did not come from the first-team All-Pro quarterback list.

Public and Fan Reaction

NFL fans and analysts have strong opinions. Online communities note that some advanced stats favor Maye — such as completion rate and EPA per play — while others highlight Stafford’s volume of production, tough schedule and supporting cast as reasons to crown him MVP. Many Reddit discussions point to this debate as one of the closest races in years, raising comparisons to tight MVP contests like the 2003 tie between Peyton Manning and Steve McNair.

Supporters of Stafford argue that his performance in a tougher division and against stronger defenses makes his stats more impressive. On the other hand, Maye’s efficiency metrics and historic completion rate figures, including a near-record 72 percent completion mark, resonate with fans who emphasize advanced metrics.

A Two-Man Race

The 2025 MVP race is almost certainly down to Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye, with both players making strong, complementary cases. Stafford’s league-leading yardage, touchdown totals and All-Pro honors showcase a traditional MVP profile, while Maye’s efficiency, completion accuracy and leadership through a breakout season offer a modern analytic appeal.

In the end, the MVP choice may come down to how voters balance traditional box score production with advanced efficiency metrics and narrative strength. Regardless of who wins, this season’s MVP debate will be remembered as a classic duel between a seasoned veteran and an emerging young star.